17th Seminar on Power Electronics and Control - SEPOC 2025, Balneário Camboriú (Brazil). 09-12 November 2025
Summary:
Hydrogen production systems (HPS) powered by renewable energy sources, including photovoltaic (PV) and wind (WD) power, are increasingly considered in long-term decarbonization strategies. However, the variability of renewable generation introduces significant uncertainty into the planning process, with direct implications for the reliability and economic performance of the system. This paper proposes a stochastic optimization (SO) model for HPS planning that incorporates grid interactions and purchases of renewable energy certificates (RECs). Renewable variability is represented through a set of representative scenarios that capture statistical and temporal features. The model identifies the optimal size of key components, comprising PV and WD units, electrolyzers, and hydrogen storage tanks (HSTs), minimizing investment and operating costs. The formulation is applied to three system configurations: PV, WD, and hybrid (HYB). The robustness of the proposed solutions is examined through test scenarios, evaluating profitability and external dependence. The results are compared with those of deterministic optimization (DO) models based on expected value (EV) and most probable (MP) scenarios, revealing that the SO model consistently achieves the highest mean and median profits, while the DO models are more sensitive to scenario selection. Furthermore, an analysis is conducted to investigate the trade-off between economic performance and REC reliance.
Keywords: Hydrogen production systems, scenario evaluation, stochastic optimization, system configurations.
DOI: 
https://doi.org/10.1109/SEPOC67005.2025.11297731
Published in: SEPOC 2025: Conference proceedings, pp: 1-8, ISBN: 979-8-3315-9353-7
Publication date: 23-Dec-2025.
Citation:
L.A. Oroya, H. Villanueva Panocca, J.A. A. Silva, M.J. Rider, "Stochastic Planning of Hydrogen Production Systems: A Comparative Analysis of Renewable Configurations", presented at 17th Seminar on Power Electronics and Control - SEPOC 2025, Balneário Camboriú, Brazil, 09-12 November 2025. In: SEPOC 2025: Conference proceedings, pp. 1-8, doi: 10.1109/SEPOC67005.2025.11297731
IIT-25-393C
